Rural
1 July, 2026
Wet June gives way to drier outlook
The region has experienced a wetter-than-average June, with the El Niño threat expected to impact Victoria’s winter and spring rainfall and temperatures.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Horsham has recorded 64.4mm for June, with the average for the month being 49.1mm.
Stawell has recorded 109.4mm, Longerenong 62.2mm, and Ararat 119.6mm for the month, with the average June rainfall as 63.7mm, 44.2mm, and 57.6mm, respectively.
Horsham recorded the highest rainfall for the month on Saturday, June 13, with 12.4mm.
The Donald Weather Station has recorded 35.4mm for Monday, June 29, taking its six-month total to 248.9mm.
The welcomed rainfall for June comes as the Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast for the next three months predicts an El Niño weather event likely to bring below-average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia, and above-average temperatures in most areas.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes the positions of warm and cool water, as well as the strength of winds and atmospheric pressures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean region, and has three states: El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral.
La Niña typically occurs when warm waters gather closer to Australia’s east coast, combined with stronger trade winds that bring more moisture into the atmosphere, usually correlating with a greater chance of wetter springs.
During the El Niño phase, warm waters head away from Australia’s east coast and trade winds are weakened, resulting in less atmospheric moisture available for rain, usually correlating with an increased chance of drier springs.
The last El Niño was a strong event that developed in spring 2023 and lasted into early 2024, with August to October 2023 being Australia’s driest three-month period on record.
Signs of El Niño have been developing since March; however, the Bureau of Meteorology reminds us that rainfall and temperature impacts can vary from one El Niño event to another, and in a warming climate, past patterns are less reliable predictors of future impacts.