Rural
9 July, 2026
El Niño sowing the seeds of doubt
Grain farmers remain optimistic about a successful 2026 season, with above-average rainfall recorded during the first six months in the region, providing essential subsoil moisture and mitigating the potential effects of a dry El Niño.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-term forecast of an El Niño weather event impacting Victoria’s winter and spring rainfall and temperatures predicts a potential dry finish for the year, sowing the seeds of concern for farmers about its implications.
Minyip farmer, Liam Niewand, has recorded 9 inches of rain for the year so far, and believes farmers are “in a good spot” with the rainfall.
“I’m expecting it to dry out a little bit,” Mr Niewand said.
“But with the moisture we’ve got, if we had a decile two or three finish, I don't think it's really going to be much of an issue; we’re still going to expect to get well above average yields.
“This time last year, we only had crops that were two inches out of the ground, and now we’ve got some of the early-sown cereals that are nearly knee-high.
“If it were to keep the way it is now, even just an average finish from now, we’re going to have big yields.”
Although maximum temperatures are generally warmer than average in an El Niño state, less cloud cover leading to cooler-than-average nighttime temperatures increases the chance of frost, posing a big threat to the industry.
“The frost aspect will come into it, a lot of crops we’ve early sown germinated early, and potentially they’re right in that frost risk window come springtime,” Mr Niewand said.
“The risk is definitely going to be higher this year, that’s if we do in fact see an El Niño play out.”
The Victorian Farmers Federation Grains President, Jason Mellings, noted the asset farmers have in subsoil moisture, alleviating the effects of an El Niño dry spring.
“Our moisture probes are saying we’re 85% full on our profile, and it wouldn't take long to get that up to 100%, so I’d like to think that the subsoil moisture will get us a fair way down the track.”
The Carron/Boolite farmer recorded 50-60mm for June, stating there's enough rain to get through till August.
“El Niño doesn't always mean it won't rain again," he said.
"It won't be wet, but if we did get the odd 10mm or 15mm over the next few months, we’ve pretty much got it home.
“That's a testament to our modern farming practices.
"You look at last year, and it was a dry year with a late start, and we still grew a crop.”
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are above El Niño thresholds, and atmospheric indicators are also consistent with an El Niño state.
Ocean-atmospheric coupling, when the ocean and atmosphere act to reinforce the El Niño state, is likely to strengthen and sustain El Niño until at least the end of the year.
“Our biggest threat is if we get a hot and dry finish, subsoil moisture only does so much,” Mr Mellings said.
“A hot and dry finish would take the potential out of it, which therefore would take income out of it.”
Although signs of El Niño have been developing since March, the Bureau of Meteorology reiterates that Australia’s weather is also shaped by other climate factors, which can modify the outcomes of an El Niño event.
“I’m 50/50 on still how much an impact El Niño is gonna have,” Mr Mellings said.
“But on the flip side, it is raining, and I’d like to think that we’ve probably got enough subsoil moisture to get us through a fair way.”
“Every farmer I know relies on the BOM; I've heard the odd ones say it's going to be a reasonable year, and I've heard quite a few say it's not, so I guess we’ll just have to wait to see what happens.”