General News
4 February, 2026
Rain break to determine two-year dry outcomes
Graham Maher, a fifth-generation farmer from Lubeck, said the past two years have been tough, but he feels hopeful about 2026. He pointed out that how the summer ends and when the autumn rain arrives will be important for local farming this year.
Talking about his farm, which includes poll merinos, composites, white Suffolk sheep, and crops like barley, wheat, canola, and beans.
“I can only comment on our operation,” he said, adding he is glad to have no major concerns at the moment.
However, he noticed that market pressures are growing as sheep numbers decline.
“I've got out the other side of this dry two years in one piece,” he said.
“No long-term complications, and that's partly good luck, partly good management.
“Water is not too much of an issue. I’ve got three blocks, one's pipeline, one's underground, and one's
runoff, and they're all OK.
“Sheep and wool prices are good to very good, and will probably stay that way for a while.”
He explained that the dry conditions have led to fewer livestock, especially sheep, and he has seen changes in how land is used in the area.
“(Recently) I delivered grain into Laharum, and it was over 50 per cent crop round there in times gone by, you might’ve had the odd paddock of crop,” Mr Maher said.
“But … I drive down to the Western Highway pretty regularly, three or four times a week (and) it's crop all the way.
"Once you got over the Wimmera River, that used to be all grazing country – now it's wall-to-wall crop.”
He attributed his healthy livestock to having feed on hand and to land that is not suitable for cropping.
However, he acknowledged that others may be facing greater challenges, especially as “the terms of trade are really starting to hit home.”
“Fertiliser, labour and all government costs have risen significantly, so the margins for everything have got tighter,” Mr Maher said.
“If you're really good, you can make some money. If you're not, it's hard work, and I don't think that's going away.
“The other one would be, those that were good, often bought land (and) machinery expanded on the back of a gamble … and wheat's gone from 330, to 270, 280 a tonne (and) lentils, from eight or 900 back to 600.
“Costs have all gone up, and the returns have all gone down.
“The people that made really good money out of hay, they may not this year, because there's an awful lot about everywhere.”
Mr Maher believes the current situation may present opportunities for livestock enterprises, though with some important considerations.
“I think certainly for those that have hung around in livestock enterprises, a golden window is opening up, if they're in a position to maximise their situation,” he said.
“A lot of people may not be because they will be that far behind by the last two years. They've got 12 months just to get back to even.
“But the wool market’s lifted 30 (to) 40 per cent in the last four months, the stock market hit all-time highs last year, and I think it will go again and be the same or better.
“So you've just got to be in a position to maximise your returns in that period.
“Not everyone will be available to do that. Not everyone would want to, probably.”
The second concern was fire.
With “a significant fire season already,” Mr Maher noted that the area is still weeks away from the anniversaries of the 1983 Ash Wednesday (Feb 16) and 2018 St Patrick’s Day (March 17) fires, so there remains considerable risk from potential sparks or lightning strikes this summer.
“We may be months away from reprieve from this situation,” he said.
“We need a really good early start, take some real pressure off, brighten some spirits, and give us an opportunity to utilise the scenario presented.”